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The Race Chasm, Re-revisited

By Ned Resnikoff - Nov 21st, 2008 at 10:01 am

After the election, Mark Schmitt graded some of the models people used to predict the election, and gave David Sirota’s race chasm hypothesis a C-, saying it “had limited predictive value in the primaries… and none at all in the general election.”

Which is true. Sort of. Ultimately, the “race chasm,” which would supposedly hurt Obama in states that were predominantly white but just diverse enough so that white racists would have someone to demonize, didn’t have much of an impact on the electoral college. But a couple of days ago, political science professor Eric Oliver did a guest post over at The New York Times‘ Freakonomics blog on the few so-called “scarlet” counties in the United States that actually went more red this year. This is the takeaway point about the demographics of the so-called “bigot belt”:

Racially isolated whites in Arkansas or Alabama may have been more afraid of voting for Obama not because they are more racist than white voters in Minnesota or Montana, but because they perceive greater racial competition with nearby black populations.

So the race chasm does exist, at least in those counties. Sirota deserves at least a B-.

Tags: 2008 presidential election, David Sirota, Mark Schmitt, race