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RE: Dan Savage

By Jamelle Bouie - Nov 7th, 2008 at 10:30 am

To answer Jesse’s question, which Erica also responded to here, I’m not particularly offended by Dan Savage’s complaints about African-Americans voting in favor of California’s Proposition 8, but I do think that he could stand to think a bit more before going off on an entire demographic. For one, African-Americans are only 6.7 percent of California’s population, and this year, 10 percent of its voters. Wednesday, Sebastian at Obsidian Wings estimated how much of an impact African-Americans had on Prop 8’s passage:

My assumptions are:

1. that the vote among black people was as reported (69% Yes on 8).

2. that black people make up 6.7% of the CA population

3. that black people represented a share of the votes equal to their share of the population

I further assume that 8 passes with 52% which seems the likely number at this point.

Given each 1000 voters, black people in CA represent 67 of them.

There are 520 Yes votes and 480 No votes for each 1000.

At 69%, Black voters voted 46 Yes and 21 No for each 1000.

If they voted like White voters (55% No) they would have voted 31 Yes votes and 36 No votes.

That would make the final tally 505 Yes and 495 No votes. (50.5% to 49.5%). [numbers very slightly rounded]

But this analysis is VERY sensitive to assumption #3. It appears that black people in CA may have voted in a greater share than that of their representation of the population. Right around 10% of the vote.

That would mean that given each 1000 voters black people in CA represent 100 of them.

At 69% Yes on 8 that would be 69 Yes and 31 No for each 1000. If they had voted like White voters they would have voted 45 Yes and 55 No. That would make the final vote equal 496 Yes and 504 No (proposition loses 49.6% to 50.4%).

Interestingly, at the 10% vote share level, if a small majority of black people voted against the measure it would have lost (49% Yes, 51% No gives the measure a loss at 49.9%).

Basically, if the black voter share is 10% or higher, the black vote difference from the white vote made the difference so long as the final total is at or below 52%. And if the black voter share is any higher than 10%, it made the difference even if black voters had only split 50-50 instead of the 45-55 shown in white voters.

If this holds true, then it would have only taken a high plurality of African-American “no” votes to sink the measure. Which is to say two things: first, had anti-Prop 8 forces run a better organized campaign, then they might have garnered enough votes to overcome overwhelmingly African-American support for the measure. It’s worth noting that inland California went solidly for the measure, and a stronger campaign in those regions might have meant the difference between success and failure.

Second, mainstream (read: white) LGBT organizations need to do a better job of reaching out to the African-American community. As Pam Spalding notes, there are few LGBT organizations which have made an effort to organize within the black community; which translates to fewer pro-LGBT voices within the African-American community. And those voices are necessary if we are to see greater tolerance within the African-American community.

All of this is to say that there is plenty of blame to go around for Prop 8’s passage, and it is very unfair–and terribly counterproductive–of Savage to place total culpability on the African-American community.

*It’s worth noting in all of this, that I was completely–and totally–wrong.

Tags: civil rights, gay marriage, human rights, LGBT, Proposition 8, race